Patna, November 10, 2025:
As the voting for the Bihar Legislative Assembly Election 2025 concluded, a series of exit polls released by national and regional media houses on Monday evening projected a comfortable victory for the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA), led by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Janata Dal (United).
According to most surveys, the NDA is likely to cross the majority mark of 122 seats in the 243-member Assembly, while the opposition Mahagathbandhan (MGB)—comprising the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), Indian National Congress, and smaller allies—is projected to lag behind by a wide margin.
Exit Poll Highlights
| Poll Agency / Media House | NDA (BJP + JD(U)) | MGB (RJD + INC + Others) | Jan Suraaj / Others | Majority Mark: 122 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dainik Bhaskar Exit Poll | 145 – 160 | 73 – 91 | 3 – 5 | ✅ |
| India Today–Axis My India | 150 – 170 | 65 – 85 | 2 – 4 | ✅ |
| People’s Pulse | 133 – 159 | 75 – 101 | 0 – 3 | ✅ |
| Chanakya–News24 | 157 – 182 | 54 – 72 | 1 – 3 | ✅ |
| Matrize–Times Now | 147 – 167 | 70 – 90 | 0 – 2 | ✅ |
The average of all exit polls indicates that the NDA could secure around 155 ± 10 seats, comfortably ahead of the MGB, which is likely to finish between 75 – 85 seats. The newly formed Jan Suraaj Party (JSP), led by political strategist Prashant Kishor, appears to have failed to make a major impact, with most pollsters giving it fewer than five seats.
Voter Turnout and Election Context
The Election Commission of India (ECI) reported a record voter turnout of 66.9%, the highest in the state’s history. The polling was largely peaceful, though sporadic complaints were reported about missing names on electoral rolls and malfunctioning EVMs in a few districts.
The elections were conducted in two phases, with major battles in constituencies like Patna Sahib, Gaya Town, Darbhanga, Muzaffarpur, and Purnea drawing national attention.
Key Takeaways from Exit Polls
- Nitish Kumar’s leadership appears to have resonated with a large section of voters, particularly women and first-time voters, bolstered by the NDA’s welfare and infrastructure record.
- The RJD’s campaign, centered around unemployment and price rise, seems to have failed to create sufficient swing against the incumbent alliance.
- BJP’s organisational network and strong voter mobilisation in both urban and semi-urban constituencies are cited as key factors behind the projected lead.
- The Mahagathbandhan continues to hold strength in pockets of northern and central Bihar but appears to have lost ground in southern districts.
Reactions and What Lies Ahead
Senior BJP leaders have termed the exit poll numbers “a reflection of Bihar’s faith in development and stability,” while RJD spokespersons dismissed them as “speculative” and asserted that the actual results would “surprise everyone.”
The final counting of votes will take place on November 14, 2025, and the official results will determine whether the NDA consolidates its dominance or if the MGB manages an unexpected comeback.
Sources:
- Exit Polls by Dainik Bhaskar, India Today–Axis My India, People’s Pulse, News24–Chanakya, Matrize–Times Now (released November 10, 2025)
- Election Commission of India (ECI) official data on voter turnout
- Coverage by Hindustan Times, The Indian Express, Times of India, Livemint, and AP News
